The Math

It is increasingly difficult to get a clear and unbiased picture of what is going on in the Democratic Party Primary. Everyone's delegate totals are different and in most cases they don't even add up to the number of delegates already decided. To get a clear picture, I did a little research on my own and came up with some numbers that make sense. I compiled totals of pledged delegates for each state based on CNN, NY Times, AP and candidate estimates. I averaged superdelegate estimates from AP, DCW, and CNN.

My current estimate, including yesterday's Mississippi delegates, has Obama with 1,619 delegates compared to Clinton's 1,493. To reach the current goal of 2,025 delegates, Obama needs 406 more while Clinton needs 532. In terms of percentage, this is a significant difference with Obama needing 44.6% of the 911 delegates remaining on the table. Meanwhile, Clinton needs to secure 58.4% of all remaining pledged and super delegates to secure the party nomination. History is not on her side. Hillary currently has 46.6% of the pledged delegates allocated and has only exceeded 60% of pledged delegates in AR, OK, RI and American Samoa.

I believe that the superdelegates will not overrule the will of the people if one candidate leads by more than 100 pledged delegates going into the convention. To close within 100 pledged delegates of Obama, Clinton needs 314 of the remaining 566 pledged delegates or 55.5%.

Here are some more complete numbers:

			Pledged Delegates					Superdelegates
			Primary	Caucus	Current	DCW	CNN	AP	Average	Total	Needed	% Needed
		Obama	1099	312	1411	207	206	211	208	1,619	406	44.58%
		Clinton	1078	172	1250	245	238	247	243	1,493	532	58.38%
		Edwards	12	14	26	0	0	0	0	26
		Total	2189	498	2687	452	444	458	451	3,138
			Total	Allocated	Remaining
		Pledged Delegates	3,253	2,687	566
		Superdelegates	796	451	345
		Total Delegates	4,049	3,138	911
		Goal	2,025

Let me add that none of my numbers include any provision for delegates of FL and MI being reinstated. This would put 313 pledged and 46 super delegates back on the table. For an even more detailed look at my analysis including a state-by-state breakdown of delegates look here.