FL and MI

It seems from the news that re-votes in Florida and Michigan are becoming increasingly likely. This seems to be a good thing, because it is simply preposterous to seat the delegates from those states based on their January primaries. Since Clinton is so fair, maybe she will agree to have her name taken off the ballot in Michigan this time around, that way she and Obama each have their names on the ballot the same number of times.

Punditry aside, here's what happens to the math when FL and MI delegates are added back into the mix. Combined, the two states have 313 pledged delegates and 54 super delegates. Some of these superdelegates have already endorsed a candidate, otherwise I will assume that all new delegates are up for grabs. This makes 4,415 total delegates and the goal for party nomination increases to 2,208.

My current estimate has Obama with 1,624 delegates compared to Clinton's 1,509. To reach the new goal of 2,208 delegates, Obama needs 584 more while Clinton needs 699. Percentage wise, these numbers make Hillary's job much easier with Obama needing 46.5% of the 1,256 delegates remaining on the table. Meanwhile, Clinton needs to secure 55.6% of all remaining pledged and super delegates to secure the party nomination.

The upshot, if FL and MI are reinstated then Hillary has more votes to contest with her newfound 'momentum'. Her chances go from nearly impossible to somewhat possible. In all reality the two states will produce a draw, MI will go to Obama and FL will go to Clinton with any gains in delegates for either candidate virtually canceling each other.

Update: Florida re-vote won't happen so this post is meaningless. Michigan is looking 50/50ish.