Alaska Teaser

Seanski and a very sodden Bald Eagle size each other up. If the eagle's feathers are too wet it can't take-off from the water and must swim to shore. Bald Eagles are far more graceful in the air.


Pete, Sean and I earning our turns at Tincup backcountry area on Turnagain pass. That upper bowl was oooh-sooo-sweeeet!


Unloading the skis from the boat, that's so cool.


The newlyweds on the ski into their wedding ceremony.

FL and MI

It seems from the news that re-votes in Florida and Michigan are becoming increasingly likely. This seems to be a good thing, because it is simply preposterous to seat the delegates from those states based on their January primaries. Since Clinton is so fair, maybe she will agree to have her name taken off the ballot in Michigan this time around, that way she and Obama each have their names on the ballot the same number of times.

Punditry aside, here's what happens to the math when FL and MI delegates are added back into the mix. Combined, the two states have 313 pledged delegates and 54 super delegates. Some of these superdelegates have already endorsed a candidate, otherwise I will assume that all new delegates are up for grabs. This makes 4,415 total delegates and the goal for party nomination increases to 2,208.

My current estimate has Obama with 1,624 delegates compared to Clinton's 1,509. To reach the new goal of 2,208 delegates, Obama needs 584 more while Clinton needs 699. Percentage wise, these numbers make Hillary's job much easier with Obama needing 46.5% of the 1,256 delegates remaining on the table. Meanwhile, Clinton needs to secure 55.6% of all remaining pledged and super delegates to secure the party nomination.

The upshot, if FL and MI are reinstated then Hillary has more votes to contest with her newfound 'momentum'. Her chances go from nearly impossible to somewhat possible. In all reality the two states will produce a draw, MI will go to Obama and FL will go to Clinton with any gains in delegates for either candidate virtually canceling each other.

Update: Florida re-vote won't happen so this post is meaningless. Michigan is looking 50/50ish.

Launch This Morning

We flew the first Atlas V off the west coast this morning. It launched from Vandenberg AFB at 3am PDT.


Photo credit: Gene Blevins - LA Daily News

The Math

It is increasingly difficult to get a clear and unbiased picture of what is going on in the Democratic Party Primary. Everyone's delegate totals are different and in most cases they don't even add up to the number of delegates already decided. To get a clear picture, I did a little research on my own and came up with some numbers that make sense. I compiled totals of pledged delegates for each state based on CNN, NY Times, AP and candidate estimates. I averaged superdelegate estimates from AP, DCW, and CNN.

My current estimate, including yesterday's Mississippi delegates, has Obama with 1,619 delegates compared to Clinton's 1,493. To reach the current goal of 2,025 delegates, Obama needs 406 more while Clinton needs 532. In terms of percentage, this is a significant difference with Obama needing 44.6% of the 911 delegates remaining on the table. Meanwhile, Clinton needs to secure 58.4% of all remaining pledged and super delegates to secure the party nomination. History is not on her side. Hillary currently has 46.6% of the pledged delegates allocated and has only exceeded 60% of pledged delegates in AR, OK, RI and American Samoa.

I believe that the superdelegates will not overrule the will of the people if one candidate leads by more than 100 pledged delegates going into the convention. To close within 100 pledged delegates of Obama, Clinton needs 314 of the remaining 566 pledged delegates or 55.5%.

Here are some more complete numbers:

			Pledged Delegates					Superdelegates
			Primary	Caucus	Current	DCW	CNN	AP	Average	Total	Needed	% Needed
		Obama	1099	312	1411	207	206	211	208	1,619	406	44.58%
		Clinton	1078	172	1250	245	238	247	243	1,493	532	58.38%
		Edwards	12	14	26	0	0	0	0	26
		Total	2189	498	2687	452	444	458	451	3,138
			Total	Allocated	Remaining
		Pledged Delegates	3,253	2,687	566
		Superdelegates	796	451	345
		Total Delegates	4,049	3,138	911
		Goal	2,025

Let me add that none of my numbers include any provision for delegates of FL and MI being reinstated. This would put 313 pledged and 46 super delegates back on the table. For an even more detailed look at my analysis including a state-by-state breakdown of delegates look here.

Avalanche on Mars

The super high resolution camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter happened to capture this image of an avalanche near the North pole of Mars. I just think it is so cool to see something dynamic in a place we think of as unchanged for millions of years.


Speaking of high-resolution images, there will be a new digital SLR waiting when I get home today! Mel and I decided on a Nikon D80 with the Nikkor 18-200mm VR lens.

Attn: Oregon Readers

One of my favorite new bands, The Hackensaw Boys, is playing The Goodfoot Lounge in Portland on March 13th. If you appreciate good Americana, this will be your thing.

Update:

Another one of my favorite bands, The Wood Brothers, is playing two shows in Oregon. First they will be at the Doug Fir in Portland on 4/18 and in Eugene at the WOW on the 19th.